While most of us have been preoccupied with the chaos unfolding here at home, given my protective instincts, I am compelled to warn of advancing adversaries around the globe. This may be the last thing people want to hear, but American foreign policy failures over the last thirty years, particularly America’s unilateral withdrawal from around the globe more recently, have provided adversaries with an opportunity to meaningfully strengthen their position. Under the mantle of “America First” we have weakened our alliances, self-inflicted a decline in our moral standing and economic potential, and allowed our security to ebb away from us at an accelerating rate. China’s economic strength, military capabilities, and expansionary posture have grown markedly. Russia, Iran, North Korea and strongmen around the globe have also significantly advanced their military capabilities and negotiating positions.
Given that military might is derivative of economic might, particularly in the long run, China has grown from a formidable competitor into a serious potential adversary. To increase US participation in the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia, as well as check China’s growing dominance, Obama executed a Bush initiated “pivot” to Southeast Asia. That pivot culminated in 2015 with the signing of TPP with 11 US allies. Like most agreements it was less than perfect, but four days into his presidency Trump abandoned it. While Trump may have relished ripping up something Obama signed, it’s clear he completely misunderstood the profound consequences he set in motion. Tragically, Trump chose a go-it-alone negotiation with China which resulted in the beginnings of a trade war that failed to dent China’s momentum.
China’s economic, political and military prowess has only grown despite Trump’s attempts to dominate it. China has claimed a large swath of the South China Sea as its own, installed tighter rule over Hong Kong, and firmly asserted its ownership of Taiwan. Through its $12 trillion Belt and Road Initiative it has also grown ties with 138 countries across Asia, North Africa and Europe.
While we Americans like to think “We’re #1”, the facts are that China’s GDP is over 20% bigger than ours, its share of world manufacturing is 71% bigger, and its steel production is 11 times bigger. The academic achievement of China’s students is near the top of 79 major countries, while our rank is 30th. Technologically, China is growing rapidly, deploying satellites, hypersonic nuclear armed missiles, carrier-killer missiles, and building aircraft carriers while the US has been retiring them. Never in the history of the world has there been a true hegemonic power like the US, and never has any hegemon ceded power so quickly to a rising competitor the way America has under the Trump Administration.
In Europe, Trump’s lambasting of our European allies over military spending and trade, has sown doubts among both allies and adversaries over whether NATO, the security anchor of the free world, is truly rock solid. Starting in 2016, both Obama and Trump also failed to persuade Putin to leave eastern Ukraine and not deploy nuclear warhead capable missiles in Kaliningrad. In 2019 Trump withdrew the US from the INF Treaty, giving Russia room to grow its influence in Europe. Fortunately, the US can renew the treaty by February 5th, though that’s just 16 days after inauguration day next year.
The Trump Administration record on troop deployment in Europe has also signaled that the US role as the bulwark of deterrence for Western Europe is rapidly receding. In light of Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Trump Administration deployed 500 troops to Lithuania in 2018, but a few months ago, it also announced plans to withdraw 12,000 US troops from Germany.
Beyond these retrenchments the Trump Administration also walked away from, or seriously undermined, several international agreements and organizations that, though imperfect, have been key to our security and leadership role in the world. Tragically, “America First” has played out, in practice, as “America Alone”. For example, with respect the JCPOA, which limits Iran’s nuclear bomb making ability, instead of expanding the scope on the agreement and working towards bringing Iran into the community of nations, the US withdrew from it and pushed Iran closer towards its hardliners. Of the eight signatories to the JCPOA, we alone withdrew from it, leaving us not only unable to rein in Iran, but giving Iran some justification for inching forward with their nuclear program.
With respect to North Korea, while several presidents have failed to rein in North Korea’s nuclear program, George W. Bush and Trump probably made the most consequential missteps. The Trump Administration successfully lead the world to impose strong sanctions against North Korea, but Trump’s impetuousness and habit of going-it-alone handed Kim Jong-un an opportunity to secure what he really wanted. He proved out the technical capabilities of his nuclear bomb and delivery systems, he was able to get the US to scale back war games, he won a resumption of coal purchases by China, and he retained the ability to quietly advance the capabilities of his nuclear and missile arsenal. Tragically, today North Korea possess up to sixty nuclear weapons and the ability to strike the entirety of continental US. If that doesn’t give you reason to pause, please consider that our own DOD estimates that a single nuclear detonation over the US could take down our entire power grid for an extended period of time, leading to the death of 90% of Americans.
In addition to all the military related isolationism above, over the last three and a half years, the US also withdrew from organizations combating the most serious threats to our world, including the Paris Climate Accord, the World Trade Organization, and several UN agreements.
The post-WWII world order that brought America to the pinnacle of power was based on forging mutually beneficial alliances with countries that shared our values. To bring our precipitous slide on the world stage to a close, and regain our footing, not as a bullying hegemon, but as an anchor of freedom, democracy, peace and growing prosperity around the world, requires us to turn away from hardball “America First” negotiating tactics, and toward working with other countries in a more collaborative manner. Recapturing our potential here at home and reversing the growing possibility of conflict abroad also requires pragmatically living out the values we espouse. Our calculus in foreign affairs, dominated the last four years by selfish and short-sighted goals, must be supplanted with non-zero-sum, long term solutions. We need leadership with the maturity and courage to seek such solutions and the ability to persuade an America that is now more fragmented, distrustful and impatient than it has been in a long time.
We are clearly diminished from what we once were, but America is still a great power. And with that greatness comes not bullying but responsibility. Winston Churchill reminded us of that in 1943 and we, most of all, must not forget that. War, more than any other form of human endeavor, has shaped human history. Given the quantum jump in potential destruction arising out of conflict, dare we continue to shrink back from our responsibilities and the mature leadership the world so very much needs?