Mindful of the many sincere prayers, songs and wishes for “peace on earth” not far in our rear view mirror, it is with sadness that I submit that the risks of war are growing and at an accelerating pace. With our nation beset with current challenges and our daily lives filled with so much to do, dismissing the possibility of a war somewhere over the horizon seems a very natural response. And yet, if we consider the growing tensions between the US and Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, the proliferation of advanced technologies and the dysfunctional process with which Trump handles foreign relations, it is not difficult to discern the risks growing beneath our feet.
Over the last 70 years we have been the beneficiaries of American leaders resolved to focus on long term relationships, maintain deterrence and keep the risks of another world war at bay. Fear, greed and cultural ignorance, the long breeding ground of conflicts and war, have coiled within the psyche of nations, yet deterrence and clarity of purpose by our presidents has held the peace. Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from treaties and a position of strength around the world, is enabling the rise of authoritarian thugs, sowing doubts among our allies, emboldening adversaries, providing space for grave instability to take root, and not just over the remainder of Trump’s term in office, but over the long term.
In Europe, Trump’s cozy relationship with Putin, rescinding of sanctions on Russia, and withdrawal from the INF Treaty, are not only making a Russian invasion of one of the Baltic countries a greater possibility, but endangering all NATO countries. Over the last two years Russia has been stationing intermediate range missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. They now are free to arm those missiles with nuclear warheads. While our relationship with Russia has been declining for the last few years, Trump has brought us to the precipice of a new arms race and perhaps a new cold war.
In 2014, Putin muscled his way into eastern Ukraine with the excuse that ethnic Russians were being mistreated. Trump support of Putin is providing him room to consider another invasion using a similar excuse, only this time with one of our Baltic NATO allies. Such a move would not only be disastrous for that country, but endanger all of Europe and bring us to the brink of WWIII.
On the Korean peninsula, while Trump was able to get North Korea to temporarily halt missile tests, his threats and withdrawal from our agreement with Iran and the INF treaty have likely fortified Kim Jon Un’s distrust of the US and resolve to hold onto the one thing that assures his survival: his arsenal of nuclear weapons. Trump has and will likely continue to make grand declarations of all he’s done, but the fact is that it will take decades of mature leadership to gradually bring North Korea into the community of nations and foster the trust necessary for them to give up their nuclear stockpile.
In the Middle East, Trump has announced plans to withdraw from Syria, handing that country over to Assad and Putin, two of the world’s most ruthless leaders. Trump has allowed Russia to put advanced anti-aircraft missile batteries in Syria capable of denying both US and Israeli aircraft from carrying out missions. And while Trump and the US military have succeeded in substantially diminishing ISIS, in December Trump turned his back on the Kurdish people, who fought shoulder to shoulder with us battling ISIS.
The breadth of Trump’s failing Middle East policies also extend into Iran, where he has not only isolated the US by withdrawing from the JCPOA, but has also tried to pin Iran down in a proxy war in Yemen, producing a horrific humanitarian crisis, and emboldening Iran to accelerate the development and deployment of multiple missile systems.
To those who steadfastly support Trump, I sincerely hope the gravity of the decades-long risks that are currently being sown, not only to all the world, but our own country and families, is worthy of pausing to consider. Generals Mattis, Kelly and McMaster, all distinguished lifelong defenders of our country, who tried to restrain Trump from his impetuous decision making, have all been pushed out of office. The choice of “we the people” is now ours.